A Solar Solution

Ray Kurzweil

Back in 2010, I was a presenter at the JavaOne Conference in which author, computer scientist, and futurist, Ray Kurzweil, was a keynote speaker. He talked about how scientific knowledge grows at a measurable rate. Specifically, Kurzweil believes that technology advances exponentially as seen with cell phones, televisions, batteries and solar panels.

Technological developments have made many things once thought to be impossible a reality today. You can buy a very sophisticated drone for a little over $200 primarily because electric motors have become so lightweight while delivering superior thrust, driven by equally light and powerful batteries. Twenty-five years ago, I bought my first cell phone. Back then comparatively few people had a mobile phone. Now everybody has a smart phone from which we access the internet, email as well as a host of apps. The most remarkable thing Kurzweil said at the conference was that the worldwide energy production from solar doubled every two years and that there was only ten more doubling left before all the energy needs of the entire planet will be met by the sun.

Forget about what I was presenting or anyone else for that matter. I was floored. One of the foremost thinkers of our time just stated that in my lifetime photovoltaic cells would provide all the energy we need. That was ten years ago. The increase in production of solar energy tracked just as Kurzweil predicted and can be seen in this logarithmic plot. 

Geometric or exponential growth is defined by increases in something depending on the amount of the thing you have. Population growth is often sited as a common example of geometric expansion. The birthrate depends on the number of people at any time. The nature of geometric growth can be very misleading. Initially the growth rate seems insignificant. When you are in the 0.1% region and you double to 0.2% in some number of years, it's easy to think that this is no big deal. Many people erroneously form opinions about a technology in its infancy at the low end of the curve. This is what gives rise to opinions like "solar is too expensive." What matters is the rate at which a given technology is growing, not where it is at any given moment.

For example, if I give you a penny and double the amount each day for a month, how much will you end up with?  After the first week you'll get 1 cent + 2 cents + 4 cents + 8 cents + 16 cents + 32 cents + 64 cents =  $1.27. Not that much. In a month, you'll have $10,737,418. This is why Albert Einstein said the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest.

I live in the most energy efficient home in my state. Forty-eight ground mounted solar panels generate 82% of all the energy we use which includes heat, air conditioning, lighting and hot water. Our home has a carbon footprint of about 700 square feet. A geothermal unit provides climate control even over the cold New England winters. A heat pump hot water tank dehumidifies the basement while making hot water. The basement becomes a cold sink of cool dry air which is circulated about the house by an Energy Recovery Ventilator (ERV). The ERV exchanges air with the outside while passively supplementing air conditioning in the summer.

The small local solar company that installed our panels was bought out twice over, eventually coming under the ownership of a national solar firm. The big renewable energy conglomerate gutted out the little company because their business model involved leasing, not owning. Leasing solar equipment is an extremely profitable business because the government allows companies to depreciate the amount of money the leased system generates instead of the actual amount it costs to install. You get a moderately lower electric bill after you pay the monthly leasing fees while the solar company gets to avoid paying any taxes all while appearing altruistically green. Companies leasing solar equipment appeal to your sense of conservation and concern for the environment while they pitch you "a more affordable solution." In reality these entities are credit companies making money by legal but dubious accounting. 

Upon seeing the solar panels in my backyard, people often ask,

"When will you pay them off?"

The higher costs associated with renewable systems usually prompts people to consider how long it will take to recovery the initial investment. Oddly, you never pay off an oil fired or natural gas heating system since consumable fuel is a reoccurring cost so why should you require a renewable system to pay for the installation investment? In any event, the answer is 12 years which was achievable partly due to attractive incentives my state offered years ago to promote solar development. Most of the state tax breaks to homeowners have been replaced by federal programs that favor leasing companies. Additionally, there is talk in my state of removing "net metering" which allows people with solar panels to receive credit from the local electric company for excess power supplied to the grid. I was watching the news this morning over my cornflakes when an energy expert came on. He declared,

"Solar technology isn't there yet."

He was an advocate of nuclear energy even though nuke plants occasionally malfunction and spew radioactive debris into the environment. When they do work as intended, nuclear energy generates radioactive sludge that has to be stored for millions of years. The expert added, "Worldwide energy production from solar is only at 1%." This dude needs to update his data because that output was seen twenty years ago.



When I was a kid, cars really sucked especially the one's built in the US. The vehicles my father owned used to fall apart by 60,000 miles, but over time things got better. Technological advances driven by market competition led to higher quality products. The same thing is happening in the solar industry. As collection panels become more efficient large arrays will be replaced with smaller and fewer units. Just as my parents experienced the internal combustion engine refine into a reliable and affordable means of locomotion, our generation will experience the electric motor, driven by batteries charged from the sun, emerge as the dominate means of transport. In the future there will be no dependency on oil for fuel which will forever alter the political and physical climate of the planet. Cheap renewable energy will raise the standard of living in every country, most notably the poorest.

The pandemic has allowed us to get a glimpse of the future. With fewer people driving on the roads, pollution from automobile exhaust dramatically reduced. Less contaminated runoff led to reports that some riverbeds are visible for the first time in a hundred years. With fewer coal fired power plants and internal combustion engines, the effects of atmospheric warming will reverse without the need for radical legislation.

A better world is coming, one we may be proud to pass down to our children. Today as some focus on the failures of our society to uphold the virtues of the founding principles equally and with malice to none, over the past two centuries there's never been a time in human history when there was such a far reaching effort by so many to try to treat everyone equitably. We are not the sum of our faults. I know this because what we truly are is in our books, our art, our music, our hearts. It's all there.

All you have to do to be a part of it is to reach out and embrace it.

Editor's Note: Originally posted on August 1, 2017.