The Math Behind Lotteries

The recent billion dollar jackpots got me thinking about winning lots of money. I, myself, don't play the lottery since one is more likely to die of spontaneous human combustion than to purchase a winning lottery ticket. A friend of mine plays the numbers daily. He's the kind of guy who can look at a lottery ticket and determine in his head if the chosen numerals are likely to come in. If they are he usually says,

"Those are good numbers."

He's a man of a few words. The Theory of Good Numbers is very complex. For instance, if a train wrecks and a number like "7114" is clearly visible on part of the wreckage, then "7114" is a good number even though the passengers on the train might think differently. Many people play birthdates since such numerals are inherently good. Whenever I think about cashing in on stacks of green I'm undeserving of, I usually don't think to play my wife's birthdate nor that of my children. I also never win either. I just can't cross the chasm that would allow me to associate my love ones with money.

The lottery is most often played routinely by middle class people who watch shows like Jersey Shore. Oddly, the jackpot has to be in the multimillions before lawyers, doctors and people who watch Masterpiece Theater start scrambling for a ticket. Most people play lotteries because they can't comprehend the staggering mathematical odds against them. The math works out that lottery jackpots are statistical combinations, that is, a subset of numbers picked from a sample space such that order doesn't matter. For instance the odds of picking five different numbers from 1 to 70 and one number from 1 to 25 to win the Mega Millions lottery is 1 in 302,575,350. This number is so minuscule that you have almost the same odds if you don't have a lottery ticket at all.

Many people are sure that it is just a matter of time before they strike it rich in a way that will set themselves and their family up for life. Unfortunately, their epitaph is probably going to read,

"I was supposed to have won the lottery."

The fact is lotteries are a tax on people who are lousy at math. People say that someone has to win although this is not always true. Sometimes, no one wins, but every time many lose. Once when I purchased a lottery ticket, the cashier asked,

"Do you want to annuitize that?"

"Annuitize what?" I asked.

"Your winnings," she answered.

I wasn't aware that I was going to win. I preferred to defer my answer until I actually won because something told me that I was unlikely to have to decide, right then and there, the manner in which the state run lottery commission will distribute my winnings. She insisted that I had to answer before the drawing. In reality, I could've opted for my winnings to be paid in the Vietnamese dong. I don't think it was going to matter.

All in all, I dislike lotteries because they sell a false dream while making millionaires weekly out of people who God had no intention of having so much money. Lotteries are just another Orwellian prediction that was proven true. We all need to face the sobering thought that most of us will never win the lottery. I'm waiting for the day the first trillion dollar jackpot is farted out of the lottery commission. Maybe then, I just might buy another ticket.

But then I remember, you can't lose if you don't play.

Editor's Note: Originally posted on October 30, 2018.